(Ed. Note: I wrote this just prior to the November elections. This is more of an opinion piece and probably better considered a letter to the editor.)
By the time this piece is published, we will have a newly elected line up of officials, some new faces and some old, that will set our agenda for the next several years. It is our responsibility to demand that they focus on a course of action that will benefit our community.
We need a strategy. We need a plan. We have to focus on that.
This is not a time to relax. This is time to get to work.
Most of you know I am a proponent of alternate energy. I am a proponent because I believe alternate energy can contribute to a comprehensive energy policy that will meet our growing demand for energy while maintaining affordable electric rates, promoting regional economic development, creating jobs and protecting the environment.
For the purposes of this discussion I would like to focus on the economics. First, we have to send a message to the rest of the world that we are in control of our economy. We can do that by establishing an energy policy that reduces our demand on fossil fuels. The events of the past eleven months have demonstrated how demand can influence the costs associated with the use of oil. That, of course, coupled with the strength of the dollar. The economies of oil producing countries like Iraq, Iran, Venezuela and Russia have seen incredible economic growth with oil selling in excess of $145 per barrel. Estimates are that theses countries need oil to stabilize at between $70 and $80 dollars per barrel to support their economic agendas. Of course, with oil prices falling below $65 per barrel, we are witnessing them scramble to stabilize the price at a rate that supports their needs. I haven’t been able to determine if anyone has even established what the price of oil needs to be to support our economic agenda. Interestingly, the major US oil companies are beginning to forecast oil prices will stabilize at $70 per barrel and that the price of gasoline will stabilize at $3 per gallon. Ten years ago the price of oil was less than $20 per barrel and gasoline was at $1. Makes you wonder whose interests are being protected here.
So, what does this have to do with alternate energy and our economy? Thirty percent of oil is used for heating residential and commercial properties and for the production of electricity. It is been suggested, for example, that cellulosic biofuels, ethanol and diesel produced from Switch grass and other renewable fuel stocks, can reduce our reliance on fossil fuels by up to twenty-five percent. The less we use, the less we spend. The more we can promote regional economic responses, the better off we are.
(Ed. note: This was written in early January, but not yet published)
Infrastructure and Rural Development
Approximately twelve years ago a group of colleagues and I wrote a position paper on infrastructure and rural development. In 1995, the National Council on Public Works Improvement concluded “the (current) state of America’s infrastructure is barely adequate to fulfill current requirements and is insufficient to meet the demands of future economic growth and development.” Not much has changed since.
David Aschauer, an Economics professor at Bates College, at that time concluded US productivity declined as investment in public infrastructure slipped from 4.3 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the 1960’s to 1.7 percent in the 1980’s and 90’s. He argued productivity declines in tandem with falling investments in core infrastructure components, such as transportation, water, sewer and publically owned facilities. Aschauer determined as much as 40 percent of the slowdown in US productivity could be explained by declining public capital investments and estimated every dollar invested in public infrastructure yields four dollars in return.
In 2005, the American Society of Civil Engineers concluded that 27.1 percent of our nation’s bridges are structurally deficient, that most of our airports are not equipped to accommodate the next generation of jumbo jets or to handle the projected growth in small regional jets and that 257 locks on transportation waterways are functionally obsolete.
In 2007 the New America Foundation (NAF), a relatively conservative economic think tank, concluded investment in public infrastructure continues at less than 2 percent, to date. Economist Jeff Madrick suggests much of the economic growth of the past generation has “depended on previous high levels of public investment in everything from transportation systems to high technology to high school and college education.” Madrick concludes much of the productivity boom of the 1990’s would not have been possible without the earlier government investment in areas like telecommunications and computer technology.
Spending on research and development and on developing intellectual capital has also slowed to less than two percent of GDP, with the US now graduating fewer engineers and scientists than nearly “all other advanced industrialized countries.”
NAF contends “uncertainties about the future reliability of our energy, water and transportation systems are beginning to impede investment in some part of the US.” They also suggest the American economy is also negatively impacted by our failure to stay current in information technology infrastructure, noting the US ranks 16th in the world in broadband access with only 57 percent of US households connected to the internet. The result is rising costs for US consumers who now “pay twice as much, for example, as their Japanese counterparts for connections that are twenty times slower.”
NAF concludes public investment is “the best way to help American companies compete against lower wage economies. By providing businesses with a better high tech infrastructure, more skilled workers, and access to cheaper and cleaner energy, it lowers the costs of doing business and increases the efficiency of investment in the US.”
NAF also contends any program to upgrade our transportation and information infrastructure to world standards and to lay the foundations for a new energy and water infrastructure would alone “create millions of higher skilled jobs that could not be outsourced and would pay above median wages.”
Finally, NAF concludes there are “limits to how much one can redistribute income through … tax (breaks)” and suggests a “robust public investment program” is now an essential tool of public policy.
Of course, even if we all agree public investment is our next step, the problem is delivering it to rural America. The US does not have an explicit national rural policy. There are many state and federal programs that in some way influence rural development, but these tend to be unrelated elements of industry specific programs, such as farm programs, including the Farm Services Association (FSA). There are also general local development funds that are not necessarily targeted for rural development, such as urban enterprise zones. And there are land use programs and regulations that do not have development as their primary objective, such as those of the Interior Department and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Therefore, while a complete assortment of programs and policies has an effect on rural development, they have developed without the guidance of an explicit rural policy.
To be effective, development policy must be region specific, identifying and working within the context of the appropriate development for that targeted area. Regional development hinges on the capacity for change. Regions must build new sources of competitive advantage through innovation and entrepreneurship. Public policies and programs should direct their efforts to help rural areas to improve this capacity.
President-elect Obama campaigned with a rural platform that provided a plan to ensure economic opportunity for family farmers that would support small business development and that would improve the quality of life in rural areas.
In addition to addressing inequities in corporate agribusiness and concentrated animal feeding operations, Obama’s agricultural policies will promote regional food systems, organic farming, fund programs to identify and train the next generation of farmers and will increase incentives for farmers and private landowners to conduct sustainable agriculture and to protect wetlands, grasslands and forests.
In terms of supporting rural economic development, Obama’s plans will provide funds for cooperative marketing initiatives and farmer owned processing plants, to modernize FCC initiatives to provide affordable broadband access, and to continue to develop alternate energy enterprises.
Quality of life issues will be addressed by providing funds for improving education, improving rural healthcare, upgrading rural infrastructure and combating the influence of drugs and other dangerous substances.
According to Obama’s website, his legislative record includes the establishment of rural Empowerment Zones and Enterprise Communities and he has worked on numerous efforts to increase access to and use of alternative fuels. Analysts suggest Obama’s decision to nominate former Iowa governor Tom Vilsak as Agriculture Secretary and for Sen. Ken Salazar (D-Colo.) to lead the Interior Department are considered signs that he intends to fulfill his campaign promises to revitalize rural communities.
The US government is developing an economic stimulus plan that is calling for up to $400 billion in infrastructure investment. This is an opportunity for local and regional communities to come together and to develop local plans for such an investment. This is an opportunity rural communities to get ahead of the curve. This is an opportunity for our leaders to come to the table and plan for our future. If nothing more than a ‘wish list” results, it is at least a start.